In a perfect world, we could take all the animals in shelters, spread them around the country (even the world) to all the people looking for pets, and have them all homed in a day. There might even be some people still needing pets waiting.
Of course tomorrow there would be more pets coming into the shelters. And maybe enough homes again. Perhaps, in a perfect world, there would be no overpopulation issue.
But we do not live in a perfect world.
First, looking at the numbers (not using specifics as I am too lazy to look them all up). Let's say that there are 5 million people looking for new pets - let's even just say dogs to make it easier. Of those 5 million people maybe 2 million want a purebred puppy - with papers. They have specific wants and needs and will not settle for less. Then of the 3 million left, perhaps 1.5 million want small dogs, 1 million will consider mediums, 500 thousand will consider a large. (not trying to be super accurate here) Of all of these about 1 million prefer puppies (or very young) over mature dogs. 1 million doesn't mind looking at various ages. 750 thousand prefer something mature (and housetrained), and maybe 250 thousand will consider a senior dog.
So for those willing to take on shelter dogs we have approximately:
500k small puppies
500k small of any reasonably young age
335k small and mature
165k small and senior
335k medium puppies
335k medium of any reasonable young age
220k medium and mature
110k medium and senior
169k large and puppy
168k large of any reasonable age
110k large and mature
53k large and senior
Total 3 million potential owners
Now let's look at shelter populations. Let's say that there are 4 million dogs in shelters (yes, that's less than total potential owners - so in plain numbers - underpopulation). Now, I'm going to avoid actual breed here - and just go for sizes. So, out of those 4 million dogs, perhaps 1 million are small dogs, 1 million are mediums dogs, 1.5 million are large dogs, and 500 thousand are giant dogs. Age-wise, there are maybe 1.5 million puppies (under 1 year) – and of those about 500 thousand will die of illness due to unsanitary conditions, lack of medical care, early weaning, etc. Then add in about 1 million young dogs (1-4 years old), 1 million mature dogs (5-8 years old), and 500 thousand seniors (8+ and yes this is considered senior by many rescues even in small dogs).
So let’s break it down:
350k small puppies – but likely 115k will die so… 235k small puppies
250k small and young (1-4)
250k small and mature
130k small and senior
350k medium puppies – but again about 115k will die, so… 235k medium puppies
250k medium and young
220k medium and mature
130k medium and senior
525k large and puppy – but likely 175k will die, so 350k large puppies
376k large of any reasonable age
376k large and mature
193k large and senior
175k giant (70lb+ dogs) puppies – but about 58k will likely die, so 117k giant puppies
125k giant and young (1-4)
125k giant and mature (5-8)
75k giant and senior (8+) though this might be lower as giant dogs tend to die younger overall but let’s stick with this for the sake of this argument
Total 4 million dogs needing homes – minus 463 thousand puppies likely to die due to various issues – so just over 3.5 million dogs needing homes.
I’m not discussing dogs considered non-adoptable due to aggression etc. Let’s consider those above the supposed numbers.
We have 3 million potential owners and 3.5 million dogs looking for homes by this estimate. Only 500 thousand dogs not likely to find homes (before considering the desires of the adopters). Not too bad really… Or is it?
Let’s compare:
Small dogs:
500k puppies wanted – 235k puppies available = deficit of 265k dogs
500k young dogs wanted – 250k young dogs available = deficit of 250k dogs
335k mature dogs wanted – 250k mature dogs available = deficit of 85k dogs
165k senior dogs wanted – 130k senior dogs available = deficit of 35k dogs
There are not enough small dogs to go around – potentially some might upgrade to medium. Others will turn to private sales or breeders. Some won’t bother at all. Total 635 thousand potential owners who end up with no dogs.
Medium dogs:
335k puppies wanted – 235k puppies available = deficit of 100k dogs
335k young dogs wanted – 250k young dogs available = deficit of 85k dogs
220k mature dogs wanted – 220k mature dogs available = perfect balance
110k senior dogs wanted – 130k senior dogs available = 20k dogs too many
If people would consider choosing a medium dog who is older, there is a total deficit of medium dogs of 165 thousand. Some of these might consider taking a large dog. Some might dip in to the small dog selection, thus taking one of the dogs from that already short population. And of course some will go to private sellers, breeders, etc. And some will just skip a dog for now.
Large dogs + Giant dogs: (I have combined these as few deliberately seek a giant dog, but many large dog people will go up in size)
169k puppies wanted – 350k large + 117k giant (467k) puppies available = 298k extra puppies
168k young dogs wanted – 376k large + 125k giant (501k) young dogs available = 333k extra puppies
110k mature dogs wanted – 376k large + 125k giant (501k) mature dogs available = 391k extra dogs
53k senior dogs wanted – 193k large + 75k giant (268k) senior dogs available = 215k extra dogs
Now in large dogs, I suspect there would be less seniors, quite possibly about half as many – still 81thousand more dogs than there would be potential owners for. Most people who would consider a large dog might consider a medium if one were available and caught their eye. But overall, there are more than enough dogs to choose from… in fact there are about 1.103 million extra dogs (with the senior dogs adjusted down due to early mortality of the size range)
Clearly once you start adding in the specifics, there are more dogs than homes overall, and in the majority of situations. Even if all 800 thousand small and medium dog adopters took a large dog, there would still be over 300 thousand dogs left without homes.
Add in variables such as temperament, breed preferences, colour preferences, etc. Well the potential homes get slimmer for the harder to place dogs. It’s not a winning situation…
I also wonder if those who claim there are more homes than available dogs consider that many available homes are available because a pet was dumped… Sure, there’s room to adopt Fluffy, because Fido went to the pound because he was too excitable, untrained, soiled indoors, or the wrong colour for the new furniture… Can you really count that as a “new home� It’s just crazy.
It also assumes that every adoption works out. Which sadly is not the case. I personally suspect that there is a 30% failure rate in adoptions. Some go back to the shelters, some get locally rehomed, some get dumped. As much as we’d like all adoptions to work out, it’s a fact that they don’t.
So… I believe that there is an overpopulation problem. It isn’t necessarily the worst it has ever been (in fact it is likely far better than it has been in the past), but it is still serious. Shifting dogs around the country (countries) will help, but there’s more to it than that. Finding a way to help reduce the mortality rates of puppies would also help (I can think of many ways to do that, but usually money comes into play – which is always in short supply). Dogs who are clearly not suited to adoption should perhaps also be a lower priority for rescue groups (who sometimes like to feel sorry for the hard luck cases, and leave the dogs they see as “safe†behind).
On the other hand, I think that breeding is an essential part of the pet industry, and responsible breeders will always be needed. Not every pet buyer is suited to managing a shelter puppy or dog. It’s not for everyone – never will be. And if pure breeds are not continued by those willing to be responsible for them, they will be lost – which would be tragic.
Finally… on the cat thing. The solution is simple enough… TNR programs. Trap – Neuter – Release. If shelters would do this rather than holding (and euthanizing) cats the feral cat populations would de hugely diminished. It would be important to be careful to not completely wipe out the feral cat community in the process… Then the only cats in shelters would be adoptable cats – ones who enjoy people, and are suited to pet homes. Areas that have TNR programs have greatly reduced feral cat populations, and do not have the overcrowding issue in their shelters.
